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2023: A historic year of US. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters

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2023: A historic year of US. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has published its final update for the 2023 Billion-Dollar Disaster Report, revealing a record-setting year for expensive weather and climate-related events. In 2023, the U.S. faced 28 such disasters, surpassing the previous record of 22 set in 2020. The estimated financial impact of these disasters is at least $92.9 billion, though this figure could increase by several billion dollars once the costs from the East Coast storm and flooding event from December 16-18 are fully accounted for.

2023 Key Events

The year 2023 saw 28 significant weather and climate disasters, each costing at least $1 billion, marking it as the highest number of billion-dollar disasters in a single year. These events included:

  • 1 Winter Storm/Cold Wave: A severe winter storm hit the northeastern U.S. in early February.
  • 1 Wildfire: A devastating firestorm destroyed the town of Lahaina on Maui Island, Hawaii.
  • 1 Drought and Heat Wave: This extreme weather event affected the central and southern U.S.
  • 4 Flooding Events: Major floods occurred in California, Florida, and various parts of the eastern and northeastern U.S.
  • 2 Tornado Outbreaks: Tornadoes struck across the central and eastern U.S.
  • 2 Tropical Cyclones: Hurricane Idalia hit Florida, and Typhoon Mawar impacted Guam.
  • 17 Severe Weather/Hail Events: These events affected numerous regions across the country. 
     
2023-billion-dollar-disaster-map.png

In 2023, the United States experienced 28 separate weather or climate disasters that each resulted in at least $1 billion in damages. NOAA map by NCEI.     

Damages from disasters in 2023 amounted to $92.9 billion, with cost estimates adjusted based on the Consumer Price Index for 2023. The most expensive events of the year were the Southern/Midwestern Drought and Heat Wave, totaling $14.5 billion, and the Southern and Eastern Severe Weather in early March, which cost $6.0 billion. Since 1980, the U.S. has experienced 376 weather and climate disasters each with damages reaching or exceeding $1 billion, accumulating to a total cost of over $2.660 trillion.

Historical Context for 2023 Costs

In the context of the 2020s, 2023 continued the trend of highly active years with a high frequency, significant costs, and a wide range of extreme events affecting people’s lives. It marks the fourth consecutive year (2020-2023) with 18 or more billion-dollar disaster events, establishing a pattern that seems to be the new norm. The annual average for disasters from 1980 to 2023 is 8.5 events (adjusted for CPI), while the average for the most recent five years (2019–2023) is 20.4 events (adjusted for CPI). 

1980-2023 US BDD Y-T-D Event Count 

Month-by-month accumulation of billion-dollar disasters for each year on record. The colored lines represent the top 6 years for most billion-dollar disasters. All other years are colored light gray. NOAA image by NCEI.     

 

Over the past seven years (2017-2023), there have been 137 billion-dollar disasters, resulting in over 5,500 deaths and exceeding $1 trillion in damages. A significant contributor to these costs is the frequency of landfalling Category 4 or 5 hurricanes, which have struck the U.S. in five of these years. Notable hurricanes include Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, Laura, Ida, and Ian. In 2023, the U.S. avoided a major hurricane hitting a large metropolitan area, as Category 3 Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the less populated Big Bend region of Florida. 

1980-2023 US BDD YTD Event Cost 

 

Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year's billion-dollar disasters, with colored lines showing 2023 (red) and the previous top-10 costliest years. Other years are light gray. 2023 finished the year in tenth place for annual costs. NOAA image by NCEI.


In a broader context, the total cost of U.S. billion-dollar disasters over the past five years (2019-2023) amounts to $603.1 billion, averaging $120.6 billion annually. This figure is more than double the 44-year inflation-adjusted annual average cost. Over the last decade (2014-2023), U.S. billion-dollar disaster damage costs were also historically significant, totaling at least $1.2 trillion from 173 separate billion-dollar events.

It's important to note that these estimates represent only the costs associated with disasters exceeding $1 billion in damages and do not capture the full extent of weather and climate-related expenses. They provide a conservative estimate of the financial impact of extreme weather on the United States. However, billion-dollar events account for the majority of damage from all recorded weather and climate incidents, and their share of total damage costs is steadily increasing.

From 1980 to 2000, billion-dollar disasters represented about 75% of all disaster-related costs. By 2010, this figure had risen to around 80%, and by 2023, it had surpassed 85%, with $2.660 trillion out of a total $3.050 trillion in disaster-related costs attributed to these high-impact events.

The rising number and cost of weather and climate disasters in the U.S. are driven by increased exposure (more assets at risk), greater vulnerability (how much damage a given hazard causes), and the effects of climate change, which is intensifying the frequency of certain extreme events that lead to billion-dollar disasters. For more details on this trend, see the Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment here

1980-2023 US BDD time series 

 

The history of billion-dollar disasters in the United States each year from 1980 to 2023, showing event type (colors), frequency (left-hand vertical axis), and cost (right-hand vertical axis.) The number and cost of weather and climate disasters is rising due to a combination of population growth and development along with the influence of human-caused climate change on some type of extreme events that lead to billion-dollar disasters. NOAA NCEI.


 

In other words, the rising costs of weather and climate disasters are significantly influenced by increased population and material wealth over recent decades. This growth has largely occurred in vulnerable areas such as coastal regions, wildland-urban interfaces, and river floodplains. Vulnerability is particularly high in regions where building codes do not adequately address extreme events. This growing exposure and insufficient mitigation contribute to the higher costs seen in the 2010s compared to the 2000s, 1990s, or 1980s (all adjusted for inflation to 2023 dollars).

BDD time period comparison

Screenshot of a table of summary statistics of billion-dollar disasters by decade and by latest 1, 3-, and 5-year periods. NCEI Billion-dollar disaster  web interface. 

 

The cost per capita in the U.S. is also on the rise, indicating that the financial impact of billion-dollar disasters is growing faster than the general population. The chart illustrates that in the early 2000s, the 5-year average disaster cost per capita was around $150 (adjusted for inflation). By the late 2010s, this average had increased to over $400 per person and has remained high in recent years. For more detailed insights, the cost per capita data can be examined at state and regional levels.

US BDD cost per capita

Research using various climate and weather data confirms that climate change is exacerbating the frequency and intensity of certain extreme weather events that lead to billion-dollar disasters. This includes increased vulnerability to drought, longer wildfire seasons in the Western states, and more frequent extreme rainfall in the Eastern states. Additionally, sea level rise is intensifying hurricane storm surge flooding. For more details on these climate and weather extremes, see the Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment (2023). Given these trends, it’s clear that human-caused climate change is influencing the rising costs of billion-dollar disasters.

With these growing hazard risks, there is a heightened need to reconsider where and how we build and to invest in infrastructure updates that address a 21st-century climate.

Notable U.S. billion-dollar disasters of 2023:

  • Southern / Midwestern Drought and Heat Wave: This disaster resulted in 247 deaths and $14.5 billion in damages. It severely affected numerous Southern and Midwestern states, with significant impacts on agriculture. The lack of rainfall and high temperatures damaged field crops, and ranchers had to sell off livestock prematurely due to high feeding costs. 
     
Color-coded map of drought conditions around Mississippi River

Drought conditions along the Mississippi River as of September 26, 2023. All 10 states the river borders or passes through had areas of at least abnormal dryness (yellow); 8 of the 10 were in some level of drought (orange to red). NASA Earth Observatory image, based on data from the U.S. Drought Monitor project.     

For the second straight year, portions of the Mississippi River experienced record-low water levels impacting river commerce. This also allowed salt water from the Gulf of Mexico to migrate northward, along the bottom of the Mississippi River, impacting water quality in southern Louisiana.

Central Tornado Outbreak and Eastern Severe Weather in early March 31-April 1: 33 deaths, $5.7 billion

Tornado damage to multiple structures at Wynne High School

Tornado damage to multiple structures at the high school in Wynne, Arkansas, following a tornado on March 31, 2023. Panoramic photo mosaic using 2 photos from the Arkansas Tornado 2023 Flickr album of insurance company State Farm. Used under a Creative Commons license.

 

A devastating tornado outbreak on March 31 led to over 150 preliminary tornadoes across several southern and central states, marking the largest outbreak for March. The event included: 41 EF-0, 41 EF-1, 33 EF-2, 11 EF-3, and 1 EF-4 tornado. The strongest tornado, an EF-4, struck Keota, Iowa, with maximum wind speeds of 170 mph (274 kph). Damage surveys revealed significant destruction in western Little Rock, Arkansas, where an EF-3 tornado injured 54 people and caused one fatality in Pulaski County. Another EF-3 tornado near Wayne, Tennessee, injured 26, while a third EF-3 tornado near Covington, Tennessee, injured 28 and resulted in four fatalities. Additionally, large hail and damaging winds caused widespread damage from Texas to Ohio, affecting homes, vehicles, businesses, government buildings, and infrastructure. The outbreak resulted in over 20 fatalities and more than 200 injuries.

Hawaii Firestorm, August 8: This devastating firestorm on Maui resulted in 100 deaths and $5.6 billion in damages. While the 2023 Western wildfire season in the contiguous U.S. was relatively mild, Maui experienced unprecedented wildfire impacts. The historic town of Lahaina was ravaged by the deadliest wildfire in the U.S. in over a century, intensified by winds from Hurricane Dora. The fire destroyed thousands of homes, vehicles, and businesses.

 

Compound extremes

The increase in disasters creates 'compound extremes' (e.g., billion-dollar disaster events that occur at the same time or in sequence), which are also an increasing problem for recovery. As noted in the recent Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023), "climate change is also increasing the risk of multiple extremes occurring simultaneously in different locations that are connected by complex human and natural systems. For instance, simultaneous megafires across multiple western states and record back-to-back Atlantic hurricanes in 2020 caused unprecedented demand on federal emergency response resources."

Daniel Martinez

Daniel Martinez