Even if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, Israel has made it clear that it reserves the right to resume military operations against Hamas.
Months of intense negotiations across various cities have brought Israel and Hamas closer to a ceasefire agreement. However, even if a deal is struck—a prospect that remains uncertain—it might only provide a temporary lull in hostilities before the conflict in Gaza resumes.
As top negotiators prepare for talks in Cairo this weekend, several key issues remain unresolved in the proposed three-phase agreement. Israel has explicitly stated that after an initial six-week phase, any cessation of hostilities may be temporary, as it is not prepared to agree to a permanent ceasefire.
"I am open to a partial deal, which is no secret, that will bring back some of our people," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said to Israel's Channel 14 in June. "But we are committed to continuing the war after the pause to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas. I will not compromise on that."
Israel's stance has not changed, and this position does not violate the ongoing negotiations, marking a significant achievement for Israel. The arrangement would allow both Israel and Hamas to walk away from the talks after the initial six-week phase and resume fighting.
This development reflects a concession by Hamas, which had been pushing for the temporary pause to lead into a permanent ceasefire, effectively ending the war.
Riki Baruch, the sister-in-law of a deceased Israeli hostage who met with Netanyahu this week, told CNN that her takeaway from the meeting was "the Prime Minister's promise to defeat Hamas and to continue fighting until the last of the hostages is returned."
Understanding that the anticipated agreement would not guarantee an end to the conflict, U.S. officials have tempered their expectations, focusing on achieving a temporary period of calm. They hope that enough pressure will build during this pause to prevent the violence from reigniting.
"Our focus right now is on securing a ceasefire, bringing the hostages home, and achieving six weeks of calm," said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby last week. "That's our immediate goal."
A ceasefire, even a temporary one, would be welcomed by many on both sides. Palestinians in Gaza, most of whom have been displaced, would gain some relief after nearly a year of relentless Israeli bombing, along with much-needed aid. Israeli families would see hostages or their remains returned after ten long months of uncertainty.
However, significant challenges remain even if the initial agreement is reached. While the first phase of the deal may be difficult to secure, the subsequent phases present even tougher obstacles before Israel would consider ending the war.
According to the agreement's outline, the second phase would initiate a permanent cessation of hostilities, during which Hamas would release all remaining hostages, and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza. The third phase would focus on rebuilding Gaza and returning the final remains of hostages.
When President Joe Biden announced the framework on May 31—agreed to by both Hamas and Israel—he acknowledged that numerous issues would remain unresolved even after the temporary pause began. While Hamas hoped that the only remaining negotiations would concern the number of Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Israeli hostages, Israel insisted that this topic, known as "the keys," should be just one of several issues discussed during the transition from the first to the second phase.
As long as discussions continued, Biden stated, the ceasefire from the first phase would also persist beyond the six-week mark. Despite the best efforts of mediators—the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar—to keep these talks on track and prevent a return to fighting, the negotiations could collapse, leading both sides back to war.
Hours after Biden presented the framework on May 31, Netanyahu's office posted on X (formerly Twitter) that "Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed."
"The destruction of Hamas' military and governing capabilities, the release of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel," he said.
Hamas' leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is believed to be alive despite Israel's determined efforts to eliminate him. Thousands of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters also remain active in the conflict.
In the first phase of a potential truce, Hamas is expected to release only around 30 of the more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages, with uncertainty surrounding how many would be alive, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.
Negotiators are still discussing the number and identity of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange, how many vetoes Israel would have over Hamas' proposed names, and where these prisoners would be released.
A recent focus of attention has been the Israeli military presence along the Egypt-Gaza border, known as the Philadelphi corridor. Under the proposed agreement, IDF forces are expected to withdraw from densely populated areas, but Israel argues that the border is not such an area and is crucial for preventing weapons smuggling into Gaza.
On Wednesday, Netanyahu's office denied reports that he had agreed to withdraw from the corridor.
"Achieving all of [Israel's] war objectives," a statement read, "requires securing the southern border."
Maintaining control of Philadelphi during the first phase, even with fewer troops, would give Israel flexibility and more options for future military operations.
On Friday, CNN reported that Israel had introduced a new proposal for the corridor, which Egypt is expected to present to Hamas. The revised plan, submitted on Thursday, includes a map detailing Israeli troop deployments and reduces the number of troops and military posts along the corridor from Israel's previous position. Egyptian negotiators had rejected the earlier Israeli map and refused to present it to Hamas, calling it a non-starter.
Hamas' response to the new proposal will be crucial in determining whether it will participate in an upcoming negotiation summit in Cairo on Sunday. If they attend, the two sides could engage in direct negotiations, with each delegation in separate rooms and Egyptian and Qatari mediators shuttling between them.
The new proposal emerged from a lengthy meeting between Netanyahu and his negotiating team on Thursday, during which Netanyahu agreed to reduce troop levels. This meeting followed a conversation between Netanyahu and President Biden, who urged Netanyahu to show more flexibility on the Philadelphi corridor.
Deep divisions exist within the Israeli leadership, with significant differences of opinion among security officials and the Netanyahu government. Far-right members of Netanyahu's cabinet have strongly opposed any ceasefire agreement, while Israeli reports indicate that security officials accuse Netanyahu of undermining the negotiations.
"The [Israeli] military is in favor of a ceasefire now, one that achieves the objectives of securing hostages' release," a senior American official said. "All remaining issues are manageable, though not perfect."
CIA Director Bill Burns, the lead negotiator for the Biden administration, arrived in Cairo on Friday for the latest round of talks.
To finalize an agreement, the U.S., along with Qatar and Egypt, has proposed a compromise to address the remaining disagreements.
Earlier this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was visiting Israel, stated that Netanyahu had agreed to the proposal, while Hamas had not yet.
Hamas has accused Israel of changing the terms in recent days, while reports suggest that Netanyahu has altered and withdrawn several positions.
A senior Biden administration official recently referred to Israel's changes as "clarifications," while U.S. officials have publicly maintained that a deal is close and that only "implementation" issues remain.
However, many involved in the negotiations are less optimistic.
One source familiar with the discussions since the last temporary truce collapsed nearly nine months ago described the situation as "near hopeless," noting that this week's talks, following last week's round in Doha, have failed to yield positive results.
One significant unknown is Hamas leader Sinwar's intentions: whether he seeks a break for his fighters and relief for suffering Palestinians, or whether he aims to escalate the conflict into a larger regional war involving Iran and Hezbollah that would further engulf Israel.
Regardless of the outcome of this weekend's talks, the most Israel appears willing to consider at this time is 42 days of calm. Beyond that, the future remains uncertain.
"It's easy to be pessimistic because this has dragged on for so long," the senior American official acknowledged. "They've had multiple opportunities to close the deal but haven't."
